| The Cuban leader Fidel Castro is making attempts to | | | | been inspired more than by a wish to retaliate |
| drag his country out of the guagmire he has landed it | | | | politically. Cuba's shortage of hard currency, already |
| in since rejecting adopting market economic principles | | | | serious before the present crisis, has long been |
| when its sponsor, the Soviet Union, fell apart in 1991. | | | | termed critical, yet even by Cuban standards a crisis |
| Even though his way of doing it -telling the Cuban | | | | was at hand last October, when Castro banned the |
| population to save on energy and work harder- is not | | | | use of dollars throughout the country. People were |
| immediately likely to effect much change, perhaps his | | | | given the chance to change their dollars for |
| efforts evidence that the Cuban leader is losing hope | | | | equivalent amounts of pesos which were said to be |
| of an impending end to the US trade embargo on his | | | | convertible from then on against a commission of a |
| own terms. | | | | grand 10%. |
| The hours long speeches held in recent days by the | | | | Cubans changed their pesos en masse taking |
| Cuban 78-year old leader show that he's by no | | | | advantage of the exemption of the commission. |
| means through with Leninist-style Marxism governing | | | | They propped up the country's foreign exchange |
| his rather undreamlike Caribbean island's economy. | | | | reserves up by more than USD1,476 million. Last |
| The changes that the president is making since the | | | | month, the Cuban leader revalued the peso with 8% |
| beginning of March are a sign however that the | | | | and people were given another chance to swap the |
| Cuban leader is worried that he might be overthrown | | | | cash they apparently still had lying around. This |
| by the mob if he allows the economic situation to | | | | indicates there is a level of desperation not |
| get even more untenable. | | | | witnessed before. |
| Castro's renewed drive to doctor his country's | | | | The recent changes in the economy are believed to |
| economy is almost certainly too little too late given | | | | be evidencing the Cuban leader's despondency at the |
| the dire situation this country is in. Real change | | | | loss of hope that the embargo is ever likely to be |
| effecting a flourishing economy will likely only happen | | | | lifted. "In the past two or three years, Cuban |
| when the country's rid of him, yet the leader is still | | | | economic policy has been on a kind of seesaw; when |
| firmly in command and the population's been battered | | | | things looked so desperate as to threaten the regime |
| into submission so much that the ordinary Cuban has | | | | seriously with street demonstrations or acts of civil |
| given up by now of hoping that there's going to be a | | | | disobedience, the regime grasped at a few straws of |
| way out other than escape. | | | | economic reform. The moment the crisis seems to |
| Like any of us, the leader could of course pass away | | | | have passed, the government has sought to reassert |
| tomorrow, but at 78 Castro is one of those old | | | | control", according to Mark Falcoff, a scholar at the |
| hands that is as unlikely to just die as he has been | | | | American Enterprise Institute. |
| unlikely to let go of his leadership, many say has | | | | Another sign that the Cuban leader is serious in |
| been so strong due mainly to the stringent US | | | | effecting changes to his economy is his attempt to |
| embargo against this country. Political analysts hold it | | | | improve people's spending power by doubling the |
| for near impossible that the country will see another | | | | minimum wage to around USD10 a month. To |
| dictator after a Castro departure from the stage. | | | | outsiders, this is more important as a sign of |
| Judging where it all will go will in the near term | | | | willingness that he is working on making real tangible |
| depends on what you consider to be progress. On | | | | changes, rather than the measure's contents. As a |
| the one hand, the Cuban population has suffered so | | | | measure the improved minimum wage is not really |
| much it by now must have developed some means | | | | making all that much difference to the average |
| to get by whatever the circumstances dictate. On | | | | worker in this country, which has seen productivity |
| the other hand, real change might be taking place | | | | drop to incredibly low levels mainly due to poor |
| albeit very slowly. The renewed focus on the | | | | organizational structures. |
| economy that Fidel has been displaying since 8 March | | | | Cubans say the recent economic changes to benefit |
| might reveal slight evidence that he's willing to water | | | | them are a drip in the ocean. Their economy really is |
| down the Marxist-Leninist wine somewhat. | | | | at the end of its tether. Hampered by outtages in |
| The changes in economic policies are aimed at | | | | electricity, parts of the Cuban population also do not |
| increasing exports and improving the conditions of | | | | even have access to running water. Transportation is |
| trade with the outside world. Cuba, Castro himself | | | | a big problem in nearly every industry and vegetable |
| admitted already in the early 1990s, is going through | | | | crops more often than not are rotting away on the |
| the most difficult period of its history as a republic. | | | | field. |
| And since then, it's gone downhill even more. The | | | | This is not to say the Cuban leader is not hoping for |
| widespread hunger and hardship has continued. Most | | | | health - his wish for the trade embargo to be lifted |
| of the people are unable to look further than the | | | | so his country can trade with the US is an expression |
| next day, one academic report from the University | | | | of this, even though it must undermine the very |
| of Texas some ten years ago. It termed the Cubans | | | | reasons for the Cuban revolution. |
| as suffering from 'societal depression' which disallows | | | | In estimating how people are likely to cope in the |
| people to think a better future is at all possible. | | | | near future, with the Cuban system that |
| Imagine the situation now. | | | | impoverishes and controls every aspect of their lives, |
| The Cuban leader routinely blames the U.S. embargo | | | | there are two options. The short answer is in this |
| for Cuba's perils and reiterated the accusations only | | | | case more correct than the long one; it simply |
| last week. Terming it the "criminal blockade" he | | | | doesn't. The highly controlled dictatorship rule which |
| believes that the US is the sole factor spoiling Cuba's | | | | does not allow for anyone to speak their mind might |
| chances of ever becoming a healthy economy. The | | | | however have seen its better days, even if the |
| outside world agrees with him. And what's more, | | | | people of Cuba are unlikely to effect this. |
| most observers believe that the vicious treatment by | | | | The long answer looks to be as slow as it is long. It |
| the US is to blame for this leader's longstanding rule, | | | | is real change. If this is coming about it might just be |
| which has seen some of the worst human rights | | | | very slow and prone to misinterpretation from all |
| abuses ever. | | | | sides. Even though corruption will be taken for |
| Fidel Castro has held on to his power by fiercely | | | | positive moves and vice versa, it is well worth |
| battling the US and playing it off against the Soviets | | | | keeping up with what's going on in this country. |
| since his 1959 communist coup in which he displaced | | | | It is likely that even the staunch anti capitalist Castro |
| another dictator, Fulgencio Batista, yet it might now | | | | who abhorrs the workings of market rule, is not |
| begin to dawn even on this leader that perhaps his | | | | entirely able to avoid introducing some capitalist |
| days are going to be numbered if he doesn't make | | | | elements into his country's economy. The fact that in |
| really convincing changes to better things. The US' | | | | contrast to over a decade ago, the recent Cuban |
| May 2004 decision to tighten its embargo, designed | | | | decree barring use of dollars in the Cuban economy, |
| to deliver another 'final' blow to this repulsive leader, | | | | falls short of penalising the possession of dollars as |
| might very slowly begin to pay off. | | | | well could be taken for a sign. As a matter of fact, |
| Because Fidel Castro's attempts to bring about | | | | anyone who has an official dollar bank account will be |
| change might be the swan song of a man who is | | | | "fully guaranteed" by the central bank. And the funds |
| running out of ideas. He is trying to improve | | | | can be withdrawn in the form of greenbacks or the |
| productivity at home by telling the population to save | | | | local currency at any date without charge, according |
| on all forms of electricity and by making empty | | | | to Joseph Potts. |
| promises that a turnaround will happen if measures | | | | The convertible peso is mainly aimed at established |
| like these are stuck to. Economists that describe the | | | | businesses in the country which are compelled to |
| situation say that Cuba needs to dramatically improve | | | | conduct trades in pesos rather than dollars. The |
| on social security before the domestic economy can | | | | currency ban also affects cash remittances and |
| reasonably be expected to pick up again only slightly. | | | | tourism. |
| There is hardly any chance of structural changes that | | | | The government also announced that Cuban state |
| will benefit the Cuban economy in the near term, but | | | | companies would have to sell the central bank any |
| a few positive outside factors exist. They include | | | | hard currency received from exports or domestic |
| high prices of nickel, which Cuba exports, and a | | | | sales. |
| steady rise in tourism revenues. The outlook for the | | | | It is estimated that annually, some USD1 billion is sent |
| much battered sugar industry is not very hopeful | | | | to Cuba from the US. The 10% commission fee on |
| because of low world market sugar prices, and | | | | dollar conversions are likely to make Cubans remitting |
| shrinking volumes due to a shortage of spare parts | | | | cash back to Cuba to change dollars into Euros or |
| for machinery, lack of adequate fertilization, | | | | Swiss Francs prior to sending them on. The move |
| breakdowns in the transportation system, and lack of | | | | that is aimed at hurting the US dollar, but which is |
| fuel for field operations and mill boilers. | | | | also enriching the leadership of the country at the |
| There is growing support inside the US to lift its | | | | same time. |
| embargo against Cuba since the country is not posing | | | | Castro is hoping that forcing the population to |
| a military threat and since the embargo is not proving | | | | depend on the home currency might also help |
| effective in removing the leader but only starving the | | | | domestic investment which is so low that companies |
| Cubans. It is argued that lifting the embargo and a | | | | are almost invariably unable to raise enough capital to |
| few clever moves might effect just the sort of | | | | keep their operations afloat. This leads to a high |
| speedy transition to a market economy that if it | | | | number of unfinished investment projects, excess |
| took off would possibly strengthen the people and | | | | productive capacity (factories forced to close or |
| give them just that much hope to actually stand up | | | | work only a few days or hours per week) due to |
| to the dictatorship in place. For a while in 1996, this | | | | lack of raw materials and supplies, progressive |
| looked a possibility, but recent governments have in | | | | deterioration of the industrial base, as well as major |
| matter of fact only worked out opposite measures. | | | | transportation problems for workers. |
| The US has recently tightened its 1992 Cuban | | | | The transportation and communications infrastructure |
| Democracy Act which was initially adopted to bring | | | | is in shambles and continues to deteriorate. |
| down Castro "within weeks," according to the bill's | | | | Impoverishment and environmental degradation are |
| primary advocate Robert Torricelli. Last year in May, | | | | spreading. There is a huge and widening housing |
| the US government reduced the number of visits the | | | | shortage. The only good commodity Cuba has are its |
| 1 million or so Americans with ties in Cuba could pay | | | | people, who often turn out to be surprisingly |
| their relatives in Cuba. And the White House | | | | well-educated even though their educational system |
| furthermore also restricted their remittances to Cuba. | | | | is highly ideologically tinted. |
| The reason for tightening up on remittances and | | | | There is a lack of almost everything in Cuba and this |
| visits to Cuba has been the perception in the US that | | | | is translated in a scarcety of domestic financial assets |
| Cuban leaders whenever they were under the | | | | in which people can save without throwing their |
| impression that the embargo was imminently lifted | | | | money away. Hence the huge amounts of dollars |
| would tend to feel encouraged to resist any real | | | | that were changed last year, which dwarfed the |
| change. | | | | country's second largest foreign exchange earner, |
| The 1996 Helms-Burton act is particularly intended to | | | | tourism, which brings in little more than USD2 million a |
| dampen such illusions because it spells out exactly the | | | | year and is relied on heavily. |
| kind of change the US wants to see on the ground. | | | | What remains a mystery hidden beneath the |
| The conditions and terms for U.S. assistance to a | | | | restrictions on freedom of speech is why the Cubans |
| post-Castro Cuba are outlined, as well as what | | | | are so keen for the Americans to lift their embargo. |
| markers will be employed to determine that a | | | | It is no doubt likely that once US companies are |
| genuine transition to market economic principles is | | | | allowed to trade with Cuban companies, the first |
| occurring. First of course is the departure from | | | | effect will be tonnes of US tourists flooding the |
| power of Fidel Castro and his brother Raú, | | | | Caribbean beaches. One can't help but deduct that |
| currently commander in chief of the Revolutionary | | | | the revolution's original goal of getting the Yanquis |
| Armed Forces. | | | | out of Cuba somehow is conveniently being |
| The response by Castro has been characteristic of | | | | forgotten. Perhaps the next phase in the relationship |
| the cat and mouse game that has been played | | | | between the US and Cuba is going to be entitled |
| between the two nations since 1960. He renewed his | | | | 'Cuba-US, geriatric harkings' - If the Cuban people |
| ban on US dollars. Yet the move is bound to have | | | | don't rise up first, that is. |