Rich Economic Future Seen in Post-Castro Cuba

Some Cuban-Americans and U.S. business ownerswhich has very limited supplies of beef, dairy and
have been waiting years for the possible fall ofother products. "We all know that for the Cuban
Communism in Cuba and the re-opening of the island'speople there's nothing there available when it comes
economy. Experts say the investment opportunitiesto food. The tourists, they have everything that is
are almost limitless, after decades of neglect and aavailable. So I think it's going to be a big opportunity,
U.S. embargo. Even after Fidel Castro, serious legalespecially for the people in Cuba," he said.
and political obstacles may remain in Cuba.While the end of the Fidel Castro regime could open
Less than 200 kilometers separate the island of Cubathe door to outside investment, experts say it could
from mainland United States, but the nations remainalso create more political and economic freedoms for
far apart on many issues. Political relations wereCuban people. Brian Latell, a senior research associate
severed decades ago, and travel and economicat the University of Miami's Cuba institute and the
activity between the nations are strictly limited. Allauthor of a new book called "After Fidel," says the
that could change, however, when Castro dies orchanges may allow Cubans to open small businesses
hands over power, according to experts at aand begin making profits for themselves. "They
conference called "A Future and Free Cuba" held bywould be taxed, they would be under heavy control.
the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce and theBut I think as a result they would begin to feel more
University of Miami's Institute of Cuban andof an ability, an opportunity to earn money, to be in
Cuban-American Studies.small enterprise," he said.
There is no indication the 79-year-old leader is goingSome of the conference participants noted they
anywhere soon, but the island's future is always onhave been studying the possibility of political
the minds of Miami's large Cuban exile communitytransformation in Cuba for years, and not much has
Some experts at the conference predict that Fidel'schanged in that time. Even after 47 years in office,
brother, Raul, will take power in Havana and graduallyFidel Castro has shown little sign of relaxing his hold
open the economy to foreign investment and localon power. Miami lawyer Pedro Freyre warns that a
business, as occurred in China. Others say radicalbig concern will continue to be Cuba's lack of legal
political upheaval is more likely, fed by years ofprotections for private business and private property.
discontent, especially among Cuba's youth. No matter"Until you have a framework in Cuba that gives us a
what the political future holds, Andy Gomez, a seniorlevel, a measure of comfort, that there is some kind
fellow at the Cuba institute, says the economicof legal mechanism that guarantees private property
possibilities are enormous. "There really is no limitation.rights, then it is fool's gold (a risky investment)," he
I think the first economic opportunity, once it'ssaid.
allowed under a Raul secession government, is goingMany expect a post-Castro government would begin
to be in the tourism industry. Then the other keyrelaxing some of its tight controls, but Freyre adds
area is how to build the infrastructure of Cuba, thethat some U.S. laws would have to be changed as
roads, transportation system, airlines, schools andwell. American businesses are currently barred from
housing," he said.operating in Cuba, and existing laws also limit the
The oil sector is another area of possible investment,kinds of activities that firms could have under a
since the recent discovery of millions of barrels of oiltransition or post-Castro government in Havana.
off Cuba's northern coast. Other businesses areExperts agree that Cuba's government and its
interested in gaining access to the island's populationrelations with the United States will change
of nearly 12 million as a new consumer base. Arieldramatically once Fidel Castro dies or leaves office,
Melchor of Associated Grocers of Florida says hebut when that will happen is anyone's guess.
expects major growth in food imports to the island,